Turkey's Continued Polarization is Biggest Challenge for New Government
The Turkish nation delivered its verdict last week, even taking Erdogan and his supporters by surprise. Turkey's parliamentary elections on July 22 resulted in a decisive victory for Prime Minister Recep Erdogan, of the Islamic-rooted party AKP. The AKP's 47 percent of the vote has reaffirmed the party's place as one of the most powerful political parties in the history of Turkish elections, claiming an even larger share of the vote than was realized in 2002.
"Democracy has passed a very important test," Erdogan said in his victory speech, amidst bursting firecrackers and showering balloons at his Ankara party headquarters. "Whoever you voted for, we respect your choice. . . . We regard your differences as part of our pluralist democracy." But last Sunday's results are far from being a vindication of democracy. Turkey is still a nation deeply polarized, as evidenced by the plethora of Turkish reporters and writers who've since laced their commentaries with acid in the mainstream dailies. Those who attempted to diminish the role of Islam in the public sphere have been dealt a cruel blow and feel betrayed by Turkish democracy. Erdogan's party now has the difficult task of appeasing the disenchanted and disillusioned, and tackling a number of pressing challenges in a political environment that is often volatile and unpredictable.
A Presidential Question
Addressing a crowd of elated supporters at his posh headquarters in Ankara, Erdogan reassured his secular opponents that the bitter row over the candidate for the post of the presidency would be "resolved without tension." But if his past actions are any indication of what is to follow, it is far from certain that AKP will disperse the tensions that precipitated the parliamentary election.
Political tensions erupted with the intensity of a Shakespearean feud in late April when AKP attempted to nominate Abdullah G¸l, Turkey's pro-Islamic foreign minister, for the Turkish presidency. Prompt parliamentary rejection of Erdogan's choice of a presidential candidate precipitated the elections that were originally scheduled for November. The post of presidency touches a raw nerve among the country's educated elite. This position is the apex of Turkey's quasi-sacred secularism, which draws its might from the republic's hero, Ataturk, who etched secularism deep into the state's political infrastructure. Far from being a mere symbolic figure, the president has veto powers to deter any actions deemed a threat to the secular republic.
Erdogan has reiterated -- albeit reluctantly -- that he will compromise on the choice of the president. However, it remains to be seen what form that compromise will take, and whether Erdogan is willing to risk prolonging the confrontation with secularists over the presidency.
The Kurdish Dilemma
Navigating the murky presidential waters is not the only challenge facing the new government. Another blight on the Turkish political landscape is the vexing Kurdish dilemma, which has thus far proven immune to a political solution.
For months, the AKP has come under intense pressure from Turkey's long-standing and powerful military to allow a full-blown incursion into northern Iraq to root out Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) rebels who are seeking to form an independent state in Turkey's southeastern border region. But so far, Erdogan has been reluctant to launch a heavy military operation in Iraq for fear of derailing the already troubled talks with the European Union and risking further alienation from the United States.
To confound the issue further, independent Kurdish politicians -- backed by the Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) that was established to seek more rights for the country's ethnic Kurds -- have made a comeback for the first time in over a decade. Amidst much adulation in Turkey's predominately Kurdish cities, DTP won 24 seats in the 550-seat parliament. The Kurdish politicians are expected to regroup under the DTP when the new parliament assembles.
Further complicating the issue of the Kurds is the election to parliament of members of Turkey's extreme right-wing, ultra-nationalist, National Action Party (MHP). Dubbed the "Turkish neo-fascists" by rival parties, MHP garnered 4.3 percent of the popular vote and 71 seats in the parliament, tapping into the seemingly infinite reservoir of Turkish nationalism. In 2002 legislative elections, the party did not succeed in gaining any parliamentary seats. Analysts attribute MHP's relative popularity at present to the AKP'S perceived weakness toward Kurdish militancy brewing in the country's south. The conviction that Western powers are out to carve up Turkey based on ethnic lines also means anti-Western sentiment is at an all-time high, strengthening ultra-nationalist and authoritarian calls to break ties with the West. Given the deep political chasms that exist among the parliament's new members, the government will be hard pressed to find a solution to Turkey's lingering Kurdish problem.
Erdogan's Biggest Challenge
Ultimately, however, the greatest challenge facing Erdogan and the AKP is to achieve harmony among the contradictory and conflicting ideological strains within Turkish society. Turkey is the embodiment of paradoxical forces. As a former U.S. Marine Corps foreign area officer now living in Turkey put it, Turkey is engaged in "a psychic struggle over its identity in the modern world."
Turkey is a nation polarized between the pious, who have noisily and tumultuously barged their way into the political sphere, and a secular urban intelligentsia. On the boisterous streets of Istanbul, tank tops mix with headscarves, even chadors, and stores that sell explicit men's magazines stand next to towering mosques. Indeed, in a nation caught between Islamism and Westernism, between tradition and progress, between illiteracy and enlightenment, the fundamental task of bridging such chasms that awaits the new regime is far more daunting than the immediate problems of choosing a president or battling Kurdish separatism.
