Turkey and Europe: An Invitation To Dance?
ANKARA, Turkey -- Not since the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire -- the seat of the 400-year old Turkish Muslim caliphate -- have Europeans been so preoccupied with Turkey. As poor Muslim immigrants from the Middle East and Africa flood the gates of Europe in search of work, the prospect of Turkey's accession into the EU has provoked the EU's most heated existential crisis to date.
Turkey, the gateway between Europe and the Middle East, began its Europeanizing mission well over half a century ago when it first applied to join what was then called the European Economic Community. Until the 1990s, however, Europe was not interested. Beset by persistent accusations that the EU was running a cozy, cohesive "Christian Club," Brussels' bureaucrats softened their position -- provided that Turkey bring into force several pieces of reform legislation. A country intent on staying on the European menu, Turkey embarked on a fierce journey, to align itself with European norms. Indeed, since 1999 Turkey has made great strides towards human rights protection, greater civilian oversight of the military, and the exercise of fundamental freedoms.
However, reaching a compromise with Turkey continues to represent one of the biggest challenges faced by the world's most exclusive club in more than three decades of admitting new nations. "Turkey is big, poor and populous," the Economist wrote in the fall of last year. Annual per capita income in Turkey hovers around $4,900, compared to the EU average of $26,000. The inflation rate in Turkey stands at 20 percent whereas in Europe it is only 2 percent. Annual population growth in Turkey is 1.2 percent, whereas the rate in the Union is 0.15 percent. On the political front, in spite of all the progress Turkey has made, the festering Kurdish question remains unsolved. Preceded by scores of attacks at tourist destinations, the mid-September terrorism in Diyarbakir that killed dozens, including five children, drove this somber message home.
As France's former Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin expressed it: The volatile debate over Turkey's accession into the Union has focused largely on how Europe can cope with "the river of Islam" entering the "riverbed of secularism." But much of that fear has neglected one crucial point: One of the biggest obstacles to Turkey's admission is not that it is Islamic, but that it still languishes in poverty. For all the talk of nightmarish visions of an influx of Muslims penetrating European soil, what is being grossly overlooked is not necessarily a "clash of civilizations," but a clash of "economic interests." A crucial question that begs to be asked is: Can a mostly agricultural, low-to-middle income economy waltz with the post-industrial wealthy economy on the continent?
Economic Woes
Indeed, Turkey's economic woes can fill pages. Given that the European Union is first and foremost an economic entity, the need for sensitive monitoring of Turkey's accession is highlighted by its recent economic past. Turkey's economy in the last decade proved to be alarmingly unstable: It shriveled by 6 percent in 1994, only to expand by 7 percent the following year, and then contract again between 1999 and 2000. And in 2001, Turkey suffered its worst economic convulsion and currency depreciation, caused by, amongst other factors, an out-of-whack balance of payments and an overvalued Turkish lira. The 10 percent shock that ensued in the economy sent Ankara running to The International Monetary Fund for a $16 billion-loan package.
Perhaps the magnitude and scope of Turkey's poverty can best be illustrated on a graph showing Turkey's per capita income compared with that of would-be entrants into the European Union, such as Bulgaria and Romania, the former Soviet satellites. By optimistic accounts, the Turkish figure stands at $4,900, almost half that of Bulgaria's $8,000 and Romania's $7,700, and less than one-sixth of the Danish per capita income, which is $32,200.
While today's Turkish economy might seem to be riding high, thanks in part to the IMF bail-out, injection of foreign hot money, an overvalued currency and a maddening construction boom, Dr. Kadir Satiroglu, former professor at Ankara University, predicts another economic shock may be on the horizon. He points to the uncanny resemblance of today's balance of payments in the country to the trends preceding the 2001 economic collapse. Then as now, the Turkish lira was 50 percent overvalued. Also, the U.S. was raising interest rates, a situation occurring today. Perhaps, most troublesome for Turkey, he points out, is the "gargantuan trade account deficit, which stands at a crushing $50 billion annually." That is, Turkey is adding about $50 billion annually to its external debt of about $300 billion. Similarly, it is now estimated that every child born in Turkey is born with a $4,000 debt hanging over its shoulder. Of particular concern is Turkey's unemployment. On the surface, it looks rather good -- around 9.3 percent. "But strip that golden veneer, and it is rough underneath," says Dr. Satiroglu, who puts real unemployment at closer to 25-30 percent.
And what do such grim figures herald for the future of EU, if Turkey were to join? According to the European Commission impact assessment, Turkey's membership could mean annual transfers of €28 billion annually to the country, including €11 billion for agriculture, or more than a quarter of the current annual EU budget. "Assuming that Turkey joins in 2015, under current EU Law it would be entitled to net transfers from between €22.1 to €33.5 billion a year from 2025," says the report.
An Overwhelming Population?
While these figures illustrate that Turkey may well be outside the scope of the European economy, the central problem is deeper than mathematics: Not only is Turkey a vastly poor country, but it is populous, and many naysayers fear the sudden influx of Turkish migrants into prosperous Europe. Turkey's population of 73 million is growing by a million a year, even as migration to Europe continues, and is projected to surpass that of Germany -- an influence that would be especially profound in the population-based European Parliament. The Union could afford to accommodate a relatively low-income state such as Latvia, with its population of two million, but many in Europe fret that absorbing a country of Turkey's size would give Ankara the same clout as Berlin or Paris.
The crushing weight of Turkey's poverty is ever evident with its growing population and little economic development. Several decades ago, with a population of only 39 million, poverty was hidden; however, today Turkey inches slowly toward the point of utter desperation. Latest official state statistics reveal that a quarter of Turks -- more than 17.5 million -- now live below the poverty line, with 1.3 percent of the population bordering on starvation -- a condition previously unknown to Turkey. Moreover, the income gap continues to increase between the haves and have-nots. A recent survey by The Kum Agency indicates that the wealthiest of families today earn upwards of $6,500 in monthly income, while the poorest of families barely scrape out a living on $80 per month. In fact, Turkey ranks fifth on the list of countries with the worst income distribution. For many Europeans, admitting a country with vast income disparities is hardly European and, perhaps, a step too far in the expansion of the European identity.
The Kurdish Question
And no place in Turkey probably feels less European than the southeastern Kurdish region. A major city in the region on the banks of the Tigris River, Diyarbakir's population hovered in the low hundred thousands in the 1980s. Now it is at 1.5 million people, and swelling daily with refugees and villagers from surrounding towns. Sure, there are shopping malls and a McDonalds, but the city is also home to the largest number of street children in Turkey and a punishing 60 -70 percent unemployment rate. Those fortunate enough to find a job toil for up to 10-12 hours a day for village-level wages. In the unforgiving rhythm of unemployment, poverty and misery, on any given day newspapers in the region report the death of young boys caught in gangster fights; women being tortured by husbands or killed by Ashirets (Kurdish clans) in the name of honor; kidnappings; pick pocketing; and burglary -- a state of anomie that has spread to many parts of Turkey. Suat Kiniklioglu, executive director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, referring to the urban decay fed by an influx of migrants to the cities, sums up the Hobbesian existence of many of Turkey's poor: "Life has become poor, nasty, brutish, and sometimes very short."
Many social scientists attribute the decay in the southeast to official neglect of the region by the government and a 20-year civil war between the terrorist Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) and the Turkish military throughout the 80s and 90s. While today's escalating violence is nowhere near the bloodshed seen in previous decades, which claimed the lives of 30,000, the potential of Kurdish terrorist violence has come back to haunt Turkey with a vengeance -- evident in recent bomb attacks in villages and popular resorts frequented by Europeans. Indeed, in the past few weeks, funerals for soldiers killed fighting rebels in the remote, mountainous southeast have become a frequent sight on Turkish television. Mothers wail and cry in agony: "Today was my son's wedding day, he wed his coffin instead," cried one mother at her son's funeral, giving rise to nationalist sentiments throughout the country.
Many Turks cite the U.S. invasion in Iraq as the most important factor in the rise in violence. Emboldened by Iraqi Kurds' move toward independence, Kurds in Turkey are also looking to carve out a territory of their own. The pressing dilemma for Turkey, of course, is that a move against the PKK in Iraq could further endanger relations with the United States and a stern response against rebels in the southeast could considerably damage Turkey's EU dreams -- European politicians from Germany's Merkel to France's Sarkozy have repeatedly used the looming Kurdish question as an excuse to leave Turkey at the altar. As Dr. Mehdi Noorbaksh, Associate Professor of International Affairs at Harrisburg University attests, "[The] EU has been very specific about this question and the Turks have shown little progress in this direction. The Kurdish question and the right of this minority could be crippling for the Turkish government."
Disheartened and disillusioned by the increasing chill from both Brussels and Washington, many in Turkey contend that the country must figure out its own response to the recent upsurge in violence. Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP), once preachers of pro-Western democracy and human rights, are taking a plunge at nationalism a la Turka. Erdogan, after all, is a politician, and November elections are fast approaching. And if his pro-Islamic party is to do well, it must be in tune with voter sentiment, which is shifting away from Europe and towards blatant nationalism. Long amicable with the United States and eager to wed the EU, Turkish support for EU membership seems to be waning. Some polls indicate that support may be just over 50 percent, down from a blissful 75 percent only two years ago.
Since Kemal Ataturk established a modern Turkey in 1923, the Europeanization of its citizens has become the state's raison d'etre. Yet Turkey has a long way to go in exorcising its economic and political demons. The economy could use a miracle, and domestic terrorism is on the increase. With these two fundamental problems casting a long shadow over the dance floor, after a 41-year courtship, will Turkey talk Europe into waltzing her into the future?
Europe owns the dance card and the decision.
